Post by SwartDawgMillionaire on Aug 10, 2014 17:19:57 GMT -6
Before I get into talking about my own draft strategies, it's a great idea to look through the following links. The guy who holds the record for most wins at an event (16-0) breaks down each set by color with regard to its Limited viability.
White
Blue
Black
Red
Green and Artifacts and Lands and Multicolored
Peek through that first. Below, I'll talk about how I look at a set for draft strategies, and then what I think is good in M15.
Drafting in General
Magic breaks down into three basic elemental strategies:
1. Card advantage or Card economy
2. Tempo
3. The Philosophy of Fire (badly named, but that's what we got)
Card economy looks at how many cards you have access to in context with your opponent(s). It can be real (Divination gives you +2 cards for -1, leading to a net of +1) or virtual (my Ensnaring Bridge won't let any of my creatures attack!). Pat Chapin defines card economy as any exchange that deals with a resource that you start the game with (cards) and gain more of over time.
Tempo is the economy of phases. When you use an Unsummon effect to bounce a creature to your opponent's hand, you go down a card in the process. But if you only paid U for your unsummon and your opponent payed 3R for his Hill Giant, you have gained tempo over him because you negated the main phase and mana he used to cast the Hill Giant (+1 main phase, +3 mana), but you didn't pay so much for the Unsummon that you can't make use of your main phase and remaining mana. You get an attack past the Hill Giant as a blocker (+1 attack phase). Note that you don't get anything in terms of tempo if you don't make use of the potentially netted phases. Tempo has been defined as the exchange of things that you do not start the game with, but gain more of over time.
The Philosophy of Fire measures how close you are to death. This can look at cards remaining in your library, time on the clock (sometimes), and poison counters. Most frequently, it refers to life totals. In the above example of bouncing the Hill Giant, that Unsummon might represent a whole lot of damage. Maybe it means that you can deal 5 damage by attacking with two 2/2's and a 1/1 that you wouldn't have been able to use before (see this relationship that tempo has to the Philosophy of Fire, and in turn has to virtual card advantage?). You are now much closer to winning the game. Cheers to you.
These principles apply to Magic at all levels. Depending on the format, they might look different (poison is a thing in Modern right now, or decking in a Solidarity match, but both fall into the Philosophy of Fire category) and depending on context they might vary in value. In Constructed Magic, it's sometimes harder to quantify these principles, at least for me. The variance in power level of cards makes it difficult to evaluate whether or not tempo matters, or if it matter that I've drawn more cards that you because yours are simply stronger. In Limited, however, these principles are much easier to observe, and the benefits of understanding them is much more rewarding.
How is Drafting different than Constructed?
In Constructed, it's frequently the right call to just shove your guys into the attack zone every turn. Blocking is rarely a thing anymore. Not so in Limited. The attack phase is probably the most important part of your turn. Because of that importance, you need to focus on creatures over just about everything else.
There used to be a drafting strategy know as "BREAK." It told you to first take Bombs, then Removal, then Evasive creatures, then Attackers, then the leftover dross- the Krap. I don't think it's as applicable in today's Limited environments. Creatures are more important, in my opinion. I would rather take a reliable attacker than a removal spell. You may have heard the phrase that "there are no wrong threats, only wrong answers." It's true.
Combat tricks are also better in Limited. Giant Growth effects can negate a removal spell, and because creatures are so important, saving something important can win you the game. It's pretty rare that you see Giant Growths used defensively to save a guy or set up a good block in Constructed, but it's one of their primary purposed in Limited. Creatures are important. Getting them in play matters, and making advantageous attacks and blocks matters.
How do I know what to draft?
This is probably were people lose the majority of the matches when they start learning how to draft. Drafting a set is extremely contextual, and sometimes you have to get you head kicked in by a card to recognize how good it is. Here's how I evaluate a set:
First, it's important to look at the cards in the set. The links I provided above will tell you all you need to know and more about the cards. You need to know what they are in order to say whether one is good or not. In M15, Welkin Tern is a great card. Unless you're playing against Green. They have Netcaster Spiders, which will live through blocking your Welkin Tern and still be hungry for more flyers. Are you seeing a lot of Netcaster Spiders? How does that affect your drafting decisions?
To decide what you think is good (colors and archetypes), it's best to look at the commons. Those are the backbone of your deck, and you can't reliably see the uncommons you want, or guarantee that you'll draw them if you do draft them. Look for the best common creatures in the colors, and the best common removal in the colors. Then decide what are the next best creatures and removal at common in the colors. In M15, you'll probably find that White's common creatures are very strong and deep, but the White removal isn't great. Black has decent (if expensive) removal, but the best black common creature is probably either Carrion Crow or Accursed Spirit, one of which costs 3 for a 2/2 that comes into play tapped, and the other costs 4 for a 3/2 Intimidate. Not a fast color, but the evasion is decent.
I tend to label sets in my head as either 2 drop, 3 drop, or 4 drop sets. This is something I learned when drafting Dark Ascension, Innistrad, Innistrad. That was a 2 drop set. To me, whoever had the best action on turn 2 was ahead. Take a look at where the powerful commons are. If you decide that a lot of strong creatures cost 2, it's a pretty aggressive set. How will you deal with that? If you can't match the quick 2 drop creatures, can you recoup the lost tempo in other ways?
How should I draft M15?
For a Core Set, M15 is quick. It isn't like Innistrad or Kamigawa, but it's still a very aggressive Core draft set. Here are my top creatures in each color at common:
White
Hint: if you're White, try to be Green/White for awesome Convoking
Triplicate Spirits (technically not a creature)
Raise the Alarm (again, not a creature)
Blue
Hint: Blue has part tempo, part control in its wheelhouse in this set. The tempo cards are better, in my opinion
Welkin Tern
Frost Lynx
Black
Hint: Black needs a good pairing. Like blue, it has some evasive guys, but is mostly a controlling color.
Carrion Crow
Accursed Spirit
Typhoid Rats
Red
Hint: Red is probably the only color that you could run as a monochrome deck
Borderland Marauder
Forge Devil
Krenko's Enforcer
Green
Hint: There is not very good removal in this color, unless you count Plummet. You either need a really good aggressive deck (probably paired with White), or something with removal (like red). I'd advise against Green/Blue or Green/Black.
Elvish Mystic
Netcaster Spider
Siege Wurm
The common removal breakdown looks like this:
White
Oppressive Rays (very meh, but can buy time)
Pillar of Light (seems like a sideboard card)
Divine Verdict (strong, but spendy)
Blue
Void Snare (tempo)
Frost Lynx (tempo)
Encrust (situational)
Chronostutter (way too expensive and tempo)
Black
Flesh to Dust (just what the doctor ordered, but really spendy)
Crippling Blight
Festergloom
Necrobite (very situational)
Typhoid Rats
Red
Inferno Fist
Forge Devil
Lightning Strike
Blastfire Bolt (can be playable, really spendy though)
Clear a Path (technically removal)
Seismic Strike
Green
Plummet
Hunt the Weak
Personally, I think Red is incredible, and I like to draft that the most, due to its really strong common creatures and removal. The uncommons, I think, are also among the set's best (Nightfire Giant (not technically Red, but easily splashable), Kird Chieftain, Stoke the Flames, Cone of Flame, Heat Ray), which also helps. You aren't guaranteed to see all of them, but you'll probably get a shot at some of them.
White
Blue
Black
Red
Green and Artifacts and Lands and Multicolored
Peek through that first. Below, I'll talk about how I look at a set for draft strategies, and then what I think is good in M15.
Drafting in General
Magic breaks down into three basic elemental strategies:
1. Card advantage or Card economy
2. Tempo
3. The Philosophy of Fire (badly named, but that's what we got)
Card economy looks at how many cards you have access to in context with your opponent(s). It can be real (Divination gives you +2 cards for -1, leading to a net of +1) or virtual (my Ensnaring Bridge won't let any of my creatures attack!). Pat Chapin defines card economy as any exchange that deals with a resource that you start the game with (cards) and gain more of over time.
Tempo is the economy of phases. When you use an Unsummon effect to bounce a creature to your opponent's hand, you go down a card in the process. But if you only paid U for your unsummon and your opponent payed 3R for his Hill Giant, you have gained tempo over him because you negated the main phase and mana he used to cast the Hill Giant (+1 main phase, +3 mana), but you didn't pay so much for the Unsummon that you can't make use of your main phase and remaining mana. You get an attack past the Hill Giant as a blocker (+1 attack phase). Note that you don't get anything in terms of tempo if you don't make use of the potentially netted phases. Tempo has been defined as the exchange of things that you do not start the game with, but gain more of over time.
The Philosophy of Fire measures how close you are to death. This can look at cards remaining in your library, time on the clock (sometimes), and poison counters. Most frequently, it refers to life totals. In the above example of bouncing the Hill Giant, that Unsummon might represent a whole lot of damage. Maybe it means that you can deal 5 damage by attacking with two 2/2's and a 1/1 that you wouldn't have been able to use before (see this relationship that tempo has to the Philosophy of Fire, and in turn has to virtual card advantage?). You are now much closer to winning the game. Cheers to you.
These principles apply to Magic at all levels. Depending on the format, they might look different (poison is a thing in Modern right now, or decking in a Solidarity match, but both fall into the Philosophy of Fire category) and depending on context they might vary in value. In Constructed Magic, it's sometimes harder to quantify these principles, at least for me. The variance in power level of cards makes it difficult to evaluate whether or not tempo matters, or if it matter that I've drawn more cards that you because yours are simply stronger. In Limited, however, these principles are much easier to observe, and the benefits of understanding them is much more rewarding.
How is Drafting different than Constructed?
In Constructed, it's frequently the right call to just shove your guys into the attack zone every turn. Blocking is rarely a thing anymore. Not so in Limited. The attack phase is probably the most important part of your turn. Because of that importance, you need to focus on creatures over just about everything else.
There used to be a drafting strategy know as "BREAK." It told you to first take Bombs, then Removal, then Evasive creatures, then Attackers, then the leftover dross- the Krap. I don't think it's as applicable in today's Limited environments. Creatures are more important, in my opinion. I would rather take a reliable attacker than a removal spell. You may have heard the phrase that "there are no wrong threats, only wrong answers." It's true.
Combat tricks are also better in Limited. Giant Growth effects can negate a removal spell, and because creatures are so important, saving something important can win you the game. It's pretty rare that you see Giant Growths used defensively to save a guy or set up a good block in Constructed, but it's one of their primary purposed in Limited. Creatures are important. Getting them in play matters, and making advantageous attacks and blocks matters.
How do I know what to draft?
This is probably were people lose the majority of the matches when they start learning how to draft. Drafting a set is extremely contextual, and sometimes you have to get you head kicked in by a card to recognize how good it is. Here's how I evaluate a set:
First, it's important to look at the cards in the set. The links I provided above will tell you all you need to know and more about the cards. You need to know what they are in order to say whether one is good or not. In M15, Welkin Tern is a great card. Unless you're playing against Green. They have Netcaster Spiders, which will live through blocking your Welkin Tern and still be hungry for more flyers. Are you seeing a lot of Netcaster Spiders? How does that affect your drafting decisions?
To decide what you think is good (colors and archetypes), it's best to look at the commons. Those are the backbone of your deck, and you can't reliably see the uncommons you want, or guarantee that you'll draw them if you do draft them. Look for the best common creatures in the colors, and the best common removal in the colors. Then decide what are the next best creatures and removal at common in the colors. In M15, you'll probably find that White's common creatures are very strong and deep, but the White removal isn't great. Black has decent (if expensive) removal, but the best black common creature is probably either Carrion Crow or Accursed Spirit, one of which costs 3 for a 2/2 that comes into play tapped, and the other costs 4 for a 3/2 Intimidate. Not a fast color, but the evasion is decent.
I tend to label sets in my head as either 2 drop, 3 drop, or 4 drop sets. This is something I learned when drafting Dark Ascension, Innistrad, Innistrad. That was a 2 drop set. To me, whoever had the best action on turn 2 was ahead. Take a look at where the powerful commons are. If you decide that a lot of strong creatures cost 2, it's a pretty aggressive set. How will you deal with that? If you can't match the quick 2 drop creatures, can you recoup the lost tempo in other ways?
How should I draft M15?
For a Core Set, M15 is quick. It isn't like Innistrad or Kamigawa, but it's still a very aggressive Core draft set. Here are my top creatures in each color at common:
White
Hint: if you're White, try to be Green/White for awesome Convoking
Triplicate Spirits (technically not a creature)
Raise the Alarm (again, not a creature)
Blue
Hint: Blue has part tempo, part control in its wheelhouse in this set. The tempo cards are better, in my opinion
Welkin Tern
Frost Lynx
Black
Hint: Black needs a good pairing. Like blue, it has some evasive guys, but is mostly a controlling color.
Carrion Crow
Accursed Spirit
Typhoid Rats
Red
Hint: Red is probably the only color that you could run as a monochrome deck
Borderland Marauder
Forge Devil
Krenko's Enforcer
Green
Hint: There is not very good removal in this color, unless you count Plummet. You either need a really good aggressive deck (probably paired with White), or something with removal (like red). I'd advise against Green/Blue or Green/Black.
Elvish Mystic
Netcaster Spider
Siege Wurm
The common removal breakdown looks like this:
White
Oppressive Rays (very meh, but can buy time)
Pillar of Light (seems like a sideboard card)
Divine Verdict (strong, but spendy)
Blue
Void Snare (tempo)
Frost Lynx (tempo)
Encrust (situational)
Chronostutter (way too expensive and tempo)
Black
Flesh to Dust (just what the doctor ordered, but really spendy)
Crippling Blight
Festergloom
Necrobite (very situational)
Typhoid Rats
Red
Inferno Fist
Forge Devil
Lightning Strike
Blastfire Bolt (can be playable, really spendy though)
Clear a Path (technically removal)
Seismic Strike
Green
Plummet
Hunt the Weak
Personally, I think Red is incredible, and I like to draft that the most, due to its really strong common creatures and removal. The uncommons, I think, are also among the set's best (Nightfire Giant (not technically Red, but easily splashable), Kird Chieftain, Stoke the Flames, Cone of Flame, Heat Ray), which also helps. You aren't guaranteed to see all of them, but you'll probably get a shot at some of them.